We’re just a few weeks away from the 2024 US Open, so it’s an exciting time for tennis fans and bettors. This week, the best players in the world will be competing in the Cincinnati Open, a 1000-level event for both men and women. Last year, the tournament gave us a magical final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. Sadly, we won’t be seeing Djokovic this year. However, the courts are full on both the ATP and WTA side, so it’s shaping up to be a great week of tennis. As always, we’ll have daily tennis best bets and predictions for everything , continuing with the action on Thursday, August 15. Keep reading for my top picks of the day, and be sure to also click the link below to head over to our Pro Picks page, where I’ll be posting my picks for a number of smaller tournaments and Challenger-level events.
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Record 2024: 643-635 (+34.15 units)
Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Zverev
Khachanov has had a strange season. Once one of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, Khachanov is 23-16 since the start of 2024. That 59.0% win rate is the lowest he’s had since 2020. Khachanov has also struggled on the short grass season, going 1-3 in four matches. That was a bit surprising for a player who has been a great player and holds an ATP record of 24-15 on the surface. But Khachanov is generally coming alive at this point in the year, and there’s really no reason why he can’t find his game soon. By all accounts, the Russian is healthy at the moment, which makes it hard to imagine his struggles continuing. Khachanov also had one of his best matches of the season on Monday, beating Francisco Cerundolo 6-0, 6-3. Now I’d like to see the Russian build on that performance by pushing Zverev.
Zverev defeated Khachanov when the two met at the Miami Open in March, claiming a 6-1, 6-4 victory in just an hour and 10 minutes. Khachanov hasn't been playing particularly well at that point in the season, though, and the Russian has caught Zverev at a good time. Zverev just had a pretty poor match against Sebastian Korda in Montreal, and the German hasn't been in great form recently. He's had a couple of really bad losses, including one to Arthur Fils in Hamburg and a straight-sets loss to Lorenzo Musetti at the Olympics. That should give Khachanov some hope that he can go there and compete here. And the reality is that Zverev's forehand was completely destroyed against Korda, so if Khachanov can do a good job of hammering that side of the court, he should be in good shape.
Khachanov is also a guy who can really keep the ball on his racket, and Cincinnati prefers players with big serves. That said, I expect this match to have one or two very close sets, and I think it's worth taking a chance on Khachanov to win one. For what it's worth, he's beaten Zverev twice in his career, so it's not like this match was a nightmare for him.
Bet: Khachanov +1.5 sets (-105 – 1.5 units)
Brandon Nakashima vs. Arthur Fils
I rarely make bets like this, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t see a tiebreaker here. These two have played six sets against each other, and three of those have gone to tiebreakers. Another was also extremely close. When they met in France in 2023, one of the three sets was a 7-5 win for Fils. So, with plus-money odds, I’m going to put a little bit of stock in this play.
Nakashima is a really good serve player, and his hold percentage has increased to 87.8% this year. However, Nakashima is a very poor returner, as his break percentage in 2024 is only 17.6%. That is somehow much higher than last year's break percentage of 13.9%. With that in mind, I can see Nakashima racking up holds quite easily, but I don't see him putting much pressure on Fils' serve. Fils' hold percentage is only 84.0% on hardcourts over the past 52 weeks, but he can get really hot with the ball on his racket at times. And even if he doesn't, I'm not sure Nakashima has what it takes to consistently bring returns back into play.
Bet: More than 0.5 tiebreakers (+105)
Julia Putintseva vs. Coco Gauff
If you've read my tennis work over the past year or so, you probably know that I'm not the biggest believer in Gauff's game. I just think it's really hard to win matches convincingly with a miserable forehand, and her serve is getting worse and worse. With that in mind, I think Putintseva will take a set from the American in Cincinnati. I know Gauff played perhaps the best tennis of her career at this event last year, but Putintseva is just a wall along the baseline. So if Gauff can't stop herself from leaking errors on the forehand side, Putintseva is going to extend rallies and hit as many forehands as possible. That should allow her to get on the board.
Of course, I should quickly mention that I’m approaching a buy point on Gauff to win the US Open. As uninspiring as she can be, she’s currently at +850 to win the event. Those odds are a lot more favorable than they were a few weeks ago, and Gauff is capable of stepping on a heater in front of a raucous New York crowd.
Bet: Putintseva +1.5 sets (-103 – 1.5 units)
Added plays
I usually have a LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count toward my record and have been a huge part of my success this season. Be sure to check them out. I’ll likely add a few more, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I post my Challenger level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
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