In August, we released the VSiN 2024 College Football Betting Guide, complete with 134 in-depth team previews, some lengthy analysis pieces and a whole lot of best bets for the upcoming season. With the start of the college football season now here, you should really check out the guide and get yourself up to speed. I included quite a few plays in that guide myself, as I handicapped the Heisman Trophy market, gave out a few of my favorite win total bets and also bet some teams to win their conferences or even win the national title. However, I have been doing more and more research since we published that guide, and I have added a bunch of futures to my portfolio. Keep reading for five college football best bets and futures that you’re going to want to take before the start of the season.
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Virginia Tech Alternate Win Total Over 9.5 (+235)
I gave out Virginia Tech to go Over 8 wins when we released the VSiN 2024 College Football Betting Guide. Since then, the number has gone up to 8.5. That Over is available at plus-money odds and I strongly suggest jumping on it. I see nine wins as the floor for Virginia Tech this season. However, I’d also throw a little something on the Hokies to win at least 10 games.
Last year, Virginia Tech started to play some good football after a 1-3 start to the season. The Hokies went 5-3 in their final eight regular season games, and they also beat Tulane in the Military Bowl. The key to most of that was Kyron Drones taking over as the starting quarterback for an injured Grant Wells. Virginia Tech’s offense simply wasn’t good enough with Wells under center, but Drones’ ability to pick up yards with his legs —and take care of the football —changed everything. Drones should only be better with a full offseason in the system, especially with the entire Virginia Tech offensive line back. Drones will also have a loaded group of weapons to work with, making it easy to get excited about the possibility of this being a top-30 offense.
Defensively, the Hokies were a top-50 team when it came to EPA per play allowed last season, and they were 28th in Dropback EPA per play allowed. The latter is crucial in college football, as it can be hard to stop some of these explosive passing offenses. But with corners Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane back, Virginia Tech should have one of the best secondaries in the nation. The rushing defense, which was below average last year, should also be a lot better in 2024. The players up front have had more time to get familiar with what Brent Pry is asking of them, and the Hokies also brought in Duke transfer Aeneas Peebles. He’s a big body that should make it harder on opposing offenses to open up holes.
Overall, Virginia Tech is talented, experienced and balanced. This team should hum on both sides of the ball. The Hokies also happen to have a very favorable schedule. That’s what jumped out to me when first looking for college football best bets. These are the most challenging games on the Virginia Tech schedule this year: vs. Rutgers, at Miami, at Syracuse, vs. Clemson. At +235 odds, I’m willing to take a shot on the Hokies winning two of those games. Truth be told, I think Virginia Tech can go 3-1 in those contests.
Kyron Drones To Win Heisman Trophy (90-1)
If Virginia Tech does win 10 or 11 games, an ACC championship and a trip to the College Football Playoff isn’t out of the question. With that in mind, you’re going to want to be holding a ticket on Drones to win the Heisman Trophy. Last year, Drones threw for 2,084 yards with 17 touchdowns and only three picks, and he also rushed for 642 yards and four scores. Drones also did that despite having backed up Wells in the first two games of the year. Now that he’ll be under center for the entirety of the season, he should post bigger numbers.
As previously mentioned, Drones will have his entire offensive line back. Virginia Tech also returns wideouts Da’Quan Felton, Jaylin Lane, Stephen Gosnell and Ali Jennings. All of them are capable of making big plays, but Felton is a standout and should make life extremely easy on Drones.
The only thing missing in Drones’ arsenal is a deep ball, but he makes up for it by being highly accurate in the short to intermediate portion of the field and being dynamic as a ball carrier. That should be enough for him to stand out amongst the nation’s top quarterbacks, but don’t be surprised if he does a little more damage as a downfield thrower in his second year as the starter.
This is just an interesting situation in which an insanely talented dual-threat quarterback is available at favorable odds, and that makes it hard not to take a flier. Drones was the MVP of Virginia Tech’s Spring Game, throwing for 122 yards with two touchdowns. He’s just riding a crazy wave of momentum heading into this season, and it feels like he’s going to put himself on the national radar soon.
Drones’ performance against Tulane in the Military Bowl gives a nice glimpse of what he’s capable of. Drones only threw for 91 yards in that game, but he did throw for two scores. He also rushed for 176 yards and a touchdown, and one of his runs was for 51 yards. This is just an electric playmaker at the most important position in college football, and he’s only getting better. His team also has a better understanding of how to use him. The sky is truly the limit here.
I suggested playing Alabama to win it all this year in the guide, but that was more of a play on the number. You weren’t coming close to sniffing the Crimson Tide at 14-1 with Nick Saban on the sidelines, but Alabama’s odds moved in a big way following his retirement. So, I like the idea of backing the Tide at the current number, as I’m not sure there’s a sizable gap between Saban and Kalen DeBoer. However, Alabama winning the national title would still be a bit of a surprise. So, I’m adding the Tide to simply make the College Football Playoff so that I leave with something if I’m partially right about this team.
There’s a real chance the SEC gets four teams in the College Football Playoff, and that might be a conservative guess. If that’s the case, it’s hard to imagine the Tide not being one of them. Alabama has some really tough games on the schedule, as the team will host Georgia and Missouri and go on the road to play Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. However, this Tide team is sneaky loaded and should be a well-coached group on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, Jalen Milroe is one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation. He’ll also be playing behind an improved offensive line, and he’s going to be operating DeBoer’s offense. DeBoer is one of the better offensive coaches in college football. Alabama should also have a good group of running backs, and I like the talent at wide receiver more than others.
Defensively, Alabama did lose a bit of talent. However, Deontae Lawson, Malachi Moore, Jaheim Oatis, Domani Jackson, Tim Keenan III, Texas A&M transfer LT Overton and Michigan transfer Keon Sabb are some of the experienced names on this unit. That’s quite a bit of talent for new coordinator Kane Wommack, one of the brightest defensive coaches in the country, to work with. Under Wommack, South Alabama was 24th in the nation in EPA per play allowed last year. On top of that, Alabama has plenty of talented underclassmen that will enter the mix. That makes it hard to worry about the defense in Tuscaloosa.
Overall, DeBoer brought Washington to the National Championship last year, and that team wasn’t nearly as talented as this year’s Alabama group. I get why it’s hard to believe in the Tide after having lost the greatest coach in the history of the sport, but there’s not much preventing Alabama from being an elite program early in the DeBoer era.
Tulane To Win American Athletic Conference (+375)
Memphis is the betting favorite to win the AAC this season, but I like Jon Sumrall to win the conference in his first season with the Green Wave. Willie Fritz did some spectacular things in New Orleans, and he was fully deserving of his Power Four opportunity. And losing a coach like that is never easy. But Sumrall went 23-4 in his two years with Troy, so he knows how to win football games. He also happens to have a talented roster.
The Tulane offense might have lost Michael Pratt, but the Green Wave should be good under center in 2024. Whether it’s Oregon transfer Ty Thompson, returner Kai Horton or freshman Darian Mensah, Tulane will be ready to rock with a talented quarterback. The team also has the conference’s leading rusher back in Makhi Hughes, who ran for 1,378 yards and seven touchdowns last year. He’ll also be working behind an experienced offensive line. That said, Tulane’s offense should be potent once again this season. Meanwhile, Sumrall and defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato should have no problems figuring out the defense. Tulane was decent on that side of the ball last year, but the group should be better in 2024. Sumrall is a defensive-minded coach and brought in some plug-and-play starters from Troy. All in all, the unit has seven players with starting experience.
The real beauty of backing Tulane is the schedule though. Based on odds to win the conference, Tulane’s toughest road game will be against North Texas. That’s a game the Green Wave should really win. Meanwhile, Tulane will host both South Florida and Memphis, meaning the team’s hardest AAC games will be played at Yulman Stadium. The Green Wave should like their chances in both, and that’s why I view them as the team to beat in the AAC.
SMU Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
SMU went 11-3 and tied for first in the AAC last season. The Mustangs are now moving to the ACC, which obviously means this is a Power Four program now. However, the ACC is the weakest of the four conferences, and I’m not sure this is the leap in competition that people think it is. With that in mind, I love the idea of going Over 8.5 wins at plus-money odds.
SMU is bringing back eight players with starting experience from an offense that averaged 38.7 points per game and was 14th in the country in EPA per play last year. That group of returners also happens to include Preston Stone, who threw for 3,197 yards with 28 touchdowns and only six picks last year. Stone should immediately be one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC, especially with another year to master the controls in Rhett Lashlee’s system.
The defense was also elite for the Mustangs last season, as they were eighth in the nation in EPA per play allowed. And while SMU did lose some pieces, the Mustangs also went out and did good work in the transfer portal. Miami transfer Jahfari Harvey and Texas A&M transfer Deuce Harmon should instantly help this defense.
This is just a team that played some high-level football last season, and the roster really hasn’t changed very much. If anything, there’s more talent here than there was before. The Mustangs will also play a pretty favorable schedule. SMU gets Florida State at home and the toughest road game on the schedule is a trip to Louisville. I really wouldn’t be surprised if the Mustangs win both of those games, but they don’t even need to. This team just needs to avoid losing four games in the regular season, and I’m struggling mightily to find even three losses on the schedule.
