NFL Preseason Picks
Week 3 of the NFL Preseason went from “Dress Rehearsal Week” to “final game” back in 2021 when the regular season schedule was expanded to 17 games. Coaches around the league now have a really important decision to make. The final preseason games are on August 25 and the regular season starts for most teams on September 8. So, there is some time if bumps and bruises arise.
On the other hand, player health is the most important thing heading into Week 1 and a lot of injuries in the NFL are more serious than bumps and bruises. However, the reps are important, too. So, we’ve got some teams playing starters and some teams not in Week 3 and some huge line swings as a result.
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Here are a few NFL Preseason Week 3 picks.
Odds from DraftKings as of 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, August 21
NFL Preseason Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets
San Francisco 49ers (-6, 35) at Las Vegas Raiders
Friday, 10 p.m. ET
Brock Purdy will play for the 49ers this week, but it remains to be seen how long he and the first-teamers will be out there for the Niners. It sure seems like Joshua Dobbs wrapped up the backup role with a strong effort last week against the Saints. So, it will be interesting to see how long he’s out there. It could very well be a lot of Brandon Allen and Tanner Mordecai for the 49ers in the preseason finale.
Throughout the preseason, the 49ers have been banged up. They canceled joint practices with the Titans due to injury and have a lot of guys that are still pointing towards Week 1 to make their 2024 debuts. This is a big number for a team with Super Bowl aspirations and a bunch of ailing roster players.
On the Raiders side of things, Gardner Minshew has won the starting job and Aidan O’Connell will be the backup, but if we ranked the NFL QB situations by “most secure” to “least secure”, the Raiders would be towards the bottom of the list. In that respect, there is a lot of incentive for both guys to remain focused, especially O’Connell, who should get extended time here and has gone 21-of-29 in the preseason.
The Raiders were uncompetitive in front of the home crowd last week and I have to think that they’re looking for a bigger effort here. Some 49ers fans are sure to be in attendance with the allure of Sin City as a big draw, but I don’t think San Francisco puts anybody at a high degree of risk here.
Also, 49ers games have featured 30 and 26 points thus far, with a lot of close-to-the-vest play-calling. A low-scoring game increases the value of six points.
Edit: This pick was posted before the news, but The Athletic’s Vic Tafur said that Aidan O’Connell won’t play on Friday.
Pick: Raiders +6
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 33.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
The Chargers and Cowboys both wrap up the preseason on Saturday, but one team is likely to be a lot more motivated than the other. This will be the only preseason tilt at Cowboys Stadium for Dallas, as they’ll get to play in front of the home fans before opening up on the road against Cleveland. Remember, the Cowboys do training camp in Oxnard, CA because of the oppressive Texas heat, so this will be their first showcase in the Lone Star State. Meanwhile, LA plays on the road for the first time.
More than just the setting, the performances of these two teams are pretty different. The Cowboys have had all sorts of drama in the preseason, but they’ve gotten some decent play from Trey Lance. Lance had two touchdowns against the Raiders after not doing much in the first game against the Rams. Dallas failed to take advantage of four Stetson Bennett interceptions and then lost on a fourth-down play with four seconds left.
The Chargers have scored nine total points in their two games, as Luis Perez, Max Duggan, and Easton Stick have combined to go 35-of-65 for 281 yards with zero TDs and two interceptions. The QBs also have nine of the 46 rush attempts, so protections and wide receiver separation have both been problems. Justin Herbert is dealing with plantar fasciitis and just returned to practice this week.
Jim Harbaugh’s apathy towards the preseason and the awful QB play seem like good reasons to fade the Bolts here.
Pick: Cowboys -3.5
New England Patriots (-4, 34) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET
The Patriots and Commanders will try to get out healthy on Sunday night in the 49th and final preseason game of the 2024 season. New England enters this game with plenty of QB depth chart questions about Drake Maye, Bailey Zappe, Joe Milton III, and Jacoby Brissett combined for 90 net passing yards against the Eagles last week.
New England had a whopping 2.9 yards per play against the Eagles after posting 4.3 YPP against the Panthers in the Week 1 triumph. Obviously all of these guys are sufficiently motivated to get out there and make their case for moving up the depth chart, but the play just hasn’t been very good.
On the Washington side, we know that No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels will begin the season with the keys to the offense, but Kliff Kingsbury has had him driving on city streets instead of the highway. He hasn’t opened up the throttle at all, as the Commanders have run a ton of RPO to get the ball out quick. Daniels has not put much air under the football and I can’t imagine we’ll see Jeff Driskel do much of that here. Both Marcus Mariota and Sam Hartman were ruled out last week against Miami and I doubt we’ll see either one here.
As bad as New England’s offense has been, the defense has played pretty well on the whole and we’ve obviously seen lots of low-scoring games in the preseason, so why not another one?
Pick: Patriots/Commanders Under 34
